I agree we are now in a second wave in many countries. I anticipated this might happen when I wrote:

There may be other blips as more people in Northern countries move indoors with winter.

I agree with many of your specific predictions in the near term. Things will be getting worse for a few weeks. Holiday travel and gatherings could spread the disease and expose more vulnerable segments of the population. I could see peak death tolls up to 12,000 a week as you forecast. I also forecast the number of new cases will continue to grow, but the mortality rate will continue to decline. I do not foresee Covid deaths rising to 17,000 a week as they did in the spring. Much of this is baked in due to the stealth infectious period of the virus when it is producing no symptoms but is capable of being transmitted.

I predict the wave in mortality will subside by February. Cases among the young may not decline. Still many of the young who get it are asymptotic or come down with very minor symptoms. They rarely if ever die from it. Theraputics are getting better and hospital stays are getting shorter. Mortality rates for older people have declined. Several vaccines are on the near horizon. As these start being deployed, they will have an increasingly beneficial impact. By mid-April, we could be down to 200 Covid deaths a week.So it’s a very serious disease and we are heading into a difficult period. Many will die. However, I still think predictions that this winter will be worse than last spring are way too pessimistic. Further I do see light at the end of the tunnel. Predictions are difficult to make, especially when they are about the future. No doubt, you will come back and hold me to account if I am wrong.

Mathematician, Statistician, Businessman, and Academic. Student of history, poli sci , and the Bible.

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