I applaud your use of data and reason to arrive at a conclusion, but I still think its the wrong one. In public surveys in 2016 Trump polled behind Clinton by large margins in several states he ended up winning. Wisconsin is one. Call this the “Shy Trump Voter” or unknown polling bias, if you correct for the 2016 gap between pre-election poll and election result, Trump will win Wisconsin and by a larger margin. I also think you wave your hands at the Progressive versus Moderate split. In large parts of the Midwest and South, a Far Left Progressive will drive Conservative and Moderate Democrats as well as Independents to either stay home or vote for Trump. It would be the George McGovern epic defeat in 1972 all over again, only McGovern was a more likeable and popular candidate than any of today’s top Democrats. On the other hand Left Progressives will stay home if Bernie is cheated out of the nomination again. No one knows the depth of the Dems split, but it can’t be ignored or assumed away.
I don’t think a Trump victory is a sure thing. It’s too early to say. But if the econmy stays strong, I have to say I would bet with him.