Impossible? It is unlikely, but not impossible, for Trump to win in a landslide, I claim. Let us suppose a scenario in which the Coronavirus pandemic is behind us, the economy has recovered, and Trump has made no horrible mistakes handling it. Let’s also assume a peace deal in Afghanistan is being negotiated, Iran is being quiet hoping for a more appeasing administration, Israel and the Palestinian Authority and a group of Sunni Arab states are meeting in Cairo to discuss the Deal of the Century, and regime change has come to Venezuela. Actually any two of the above would suffice. Let us assume a scenario in which the Black vote for Trump rises from 8% to 15% nationally. Also suppose his support among Jews rises 5% due to fear of anti-Semitism and Anti-Zionism on the Left. Meanwhile, assume Trump makes even greater inroads with industrial and construction workers who are happy with his trade deals and immigration enforcement. Also let’s assume suburban women get more concerned about what socialism would do to their family finances and return in droves to the Republican Party. Further assume a scenario in which many urban coastal Democrats grow angry enough at rising crime, filth, homelessness, and sanctuary cities that they don’t show up on election day. They won’t admit it yet, fearful of what their friends might say, but some nominally committed Democrats have become disillusioned with the ability of Democrats to run a lemonade stand, a primary Caucus, or a City. Say they amount to 5%. Finally assume the long primary struggle leads to a brokered convention in which a Bernie loses by a hair and the nomination goes to anyone else. Or assume that Bernie wins by a hair but moderates throughout the Midwest and South walk away from the party. Maybe 5%.

It’s unlikely, but not impossible, that all these tumblers click together. If the Trump campaign can stop widespread electoral fraud, vote harvesting, massive manipulation of a absentee and mail-in ballots, and have Federal investigators and lawyers on scene to keep it all honest, yes there is a possibility of a 1972 style landslide.

Mathematician, Statistician, Businessman, and Academic. Student of history, poli sci , and the Bible.

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