My response is in rebuttal to the argument made in the original post that demographic changes will quickly and inevitably lead to a Democratic Party lock on national elections.

I view this demographic argument as wishful thinking. It was made before the 2016 election to prove that Hillary would win, but results did not come in as predicted.

The first flaw in the demographic argument is the assumption that all non-whites are Democrats. Even today that just isn’t true. Voters with family backgrounds from several Hispanic nationalities and many East Asian nationalities don’t fit the mold.

The second point is that the large Democratic Party pluralities in some minority groups are not written in stone. It is not impossible that economic growth could move the Black vote by 5 points just by expanding the Black middle and upper classes. Upper middle class and suburban voters tend to vote Republican. Does class matter? Does it undercut the strength of the racial identity politics argument?

I am not making or proposing any strategy for conservatives. I am simply poking holes in the demographic argument that predicts inevitable Democratic party dominance. Excuse me, I have to answer the doorbell. Campaigners for my state rep, a Republican Chinese American, want to hand me some literature.

Mathematician, Statistician, Businessman, and Academic. Student of history, poli sci , and the Bible.

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