No, it’s not over. By the afternoon, Ambassador Sondland’s “the answer is yes” and “everyone was in the loop" responses affirming a quid pro quo had given way to admissions that he was speculating. The tide kept rolling back. Under questioning, the Ambassador reaffirmed Trump had made a strong “no quid pro quo” statement. Later the news had Trump declaring victory over the impeachment effort. He may well be right.
Your comments about life after impeachment are somewhat an exercise in wishful thinking. First Clinton was anything but weak during and after his impeachment. His popularity soared. He worked with the Republicans to balance the budget and even presided over the last budget surplus. The economy grew like gangbusters and he was given credit by most people for the good times that prevailed even as the economic system was undergoing major structural changes. He pushed ahead on a raft of financial reforms, health care measures (HIPA), trade pacts, while commanding a large presence internationally (trade deals, Dayton accords on Kosovo, Camp David Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, airstrikes against Saddam, Kyoto climate goals). Impeachment came late in his second term, but if anything he came out of it stronger. As for Trump, if he is elected after impeachment, he will have a mandate to carry out his program. All the Republicans and most moderate Democrats will respect the wishes of the voters in reelecting him. He will be able to appoint a raft of new judges and finally push through immigration reform. Whether any of that happens is not clear. However your scenario: he get impeached, avoids conviction, gets reelected but is an ineffectual lame duck his second term, is extremely implausible wishful thinking.