That’s a mighty bold prediction. I’m not sure what polls you are looking at, but even the polls that predicted Hillary’s coronation are saying the Republicans have experienced a nice “Brett” bounce and are in a much position to add seats in the Senate and possibly to even hold on to the House.

Trump and McConnell are thanking the Democrats for putting this at the top of their public agenda. It gets the base enthused.

Beyond that, I don’t think this plays at all as well as you think with minority and lower class voters. It showcases the Democrats as focused on the details of prep school parties from 35 years ago and portrays them as a screaming mob of upper class white women. Anecdotally, I sense a real dissappointment that could translate into low turnout for the Democrats in their inner city strongholds. On the other hand this has got the conservatives in the Heartland and the South plenty riled up, men and also women. Finally, men of all races and ages are not happy with being told to shut up. It could get male independents to pull an R lever and even get male Democrats to stay home. Overall I am seeing as many reasons on one side as on the other. We will have to wait till November to find out who is right. Might I suggest, though, that your victory celebration was premature.

Mathematician, Statistician, Businessman, and Academic. Student of history, poli sci , and the Bible.

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