The link to the polls did not work. Still even without reviewing them, I’d have to say they don’t prove much. They were wrong in 2016 when many of the polls predicted a Hillary landslide. The polls are subject to large and increasing sampling bias. Who answers their phone these days? How reliable are on-line polls?Are the sample sizes large enough to draw state by state conclusions? Even if the pollster gets a real person who expresses a preference, how likely is that person to actually vote? When you put all that together with the 2016 data point that Trump beat poll estimates by 5-15 points in several key states depending on the poll, and you’ve basically got margins of error that undercut your entire poll-based argument.

We have other data points which suggest Trump is much more formidable than you believe. First is that Nancy Pelosi is afraid to have the House vote to begin an impeachment inquiry for fear of destroying her cadre of moderate Democrats who won in Trump districts.

Second is the ability of Trump to fill 10,000+ seat arenas with enthusiastic supporters. While Warren is starting to draw larger crowds, many of the other Democrats struggle to fill grade school gymnasiums even if they beat Trump in a poll.

Third, a critical aspect of this is money. Trump is raising way more money than the Democratic field. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren each raised about $25 million last quarter while Trump raised $125 million.

Finally I have not seen statistics on candidate air time or social media ads, but the whole drama of impeachment relegates the host of Democrat candidates to the category of “after the break” stories that don’t get listened to. I don’t think the Democrat candidates are getting enough media exposure. The last few days I’ve seen news featuring Pelosi, Schiff, and Tlaib. Bernie also made the news due to having a heart attack. Warren got a few mentions. Biden got time in the impeachment coverage with anchors saying he was not corrupt.

It would be helpful to your argument if you had a single Trump majority state you could point to where droves of Trump voters are saying it’s time to impeach him. I have no doubt he will be impeached, but won’t get convicted by the Senate. The real question is whether the impeachment will aid his reelection and return the House to Republican hands. At this point no one knows, polls notwithstanding.

Mathematician, Statistician, Businessman, and Academic. Student of history, poli sci , and the Bible.

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