The polls have major problems and are growing more and more inaccurate. Phone based polling has become notoriously difficult. Most people are on cell phones and do not answer calls from people they don’t recognize. Many don’t answer even if they know who is calling and prefer to text instead. When people do answer a call from a “poll”, more than half the time it is a bogus poll that tricks people into taking a campaign solicitation call. So many do not answer calls from “polls". This all leads to tremendous bias in the poll sample. Then the issue of how truthful people are in answering comes into play. Finally, respondents typically overestimate how likely they are to vote. When you mix in all those potential errors, even stratified sampling cannot corral the errors into the tight error bars claimed by many polls. The polls were wrong in 2016. They may be even more inaccurate in 2020.

Mathematician, Statistician, Businessman, and Academic. Student of history, poli sci , and the Bible.

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