This whole demographic argument was repeatedly cited as the reason Hillary couldn’t lose, but she did. What went wrong?
First Hispanics don’t vote as a block. Cubans, Brazilians, and even Puerto Ricans are not automatic Democratic Party votes even now.
In the 2016 election many Hispanics did not show up for Hillary. Black turnout for Hillary was also less than predicted. In the future a less abrasive and more welcoming candidate than Trump might be successful in getting more minority voters to abandon the Democrats.
Won’t a good economy or a successful infrastructure plan make more Black Americans take a second look?.The recent Kanye West- Chance episode indicates potential for a larger trend.
Asians are also a growing demographic and many find the Progressive Democratic philosophy unattractive. The suit against Harvard suggests many see the quotas the Left is pushing as not-so-veiled anti-Asian discrimination.
In the end the success of the identity politics approach is not inevitable on demographic grounds. Many immigrants came here for freedom, security and economic opportunity. Prosperity, law and order, and patriotism can be appealing to them. Like other groups of immigrants before them, many want full acceptance as Americans in their new country. What if half of them decide a populist program has more to offer in affirming their identity as Americans than the divisive, anti-American identity politics of the Progressive Left?