Under Trump, we have Black employment at the highest ever, Black unemployment at the lowest ever, Black poverty at its lowest rate, and we see rising median Black income. The household income for the top fifth of Black American families is over $150,000. These households may have an economic self-interest in voting Republican.


With Trump initiatives in supporting HBCUs, in criminal justice reform, and in forging ties with Black ministers, it is quite possible he could get over 15% of the Black vote in 2020 versus 8% in 2016. Rising filth and crime in Democrat-run cities falls most heavily on minority residents. Meanwhile urban infrastructure deteriorates. A serious campaign by Trump and Republicans for the Black vote in 2020 could yield surprising benefits for the Republicans. Realistically they could cut the 80 point net Democrat advantage to 75 points or even less.


It is an open question whether Trump and the Republicans can capitalize on the good economy and dissatisfaction with Democrat ineptitude in governance. But it is fair to say at least some segment of the Black vote is in play.

Mathematician, Statistician, Businessman, and Academic. Student of history, poli sci , and the Bible.

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