Very interesting. Is the data sufficient to support breakouts by state to arrive at Electoral College impact? If the Democrats move left, do they keep their Progressives in fairly Blue States, but lose enough moderate and independent voters to suffer a decisive electoral college defeat? Also I believe your ANES data is from before Schultz started to look at running as an independent. It’s quite possible the further Left the nominee, the more Democratic parth centrists defect to Schultz. Finally do you have any data on the effect of the release of the Mueller report and the pursuit of impeachment? Will the Progressive Left push for impeachment drive away most moderates and independents, while boosting turnout for Trump supporters?

Mathematician, Statistician, Businessman, and Academic. Student of history, poli sci , and the Bible.

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