Wrong. We are not going back to war again. Trump’s drone strike takes a key enemy leader off the battlefield. It replaces the Obama policy of appeasement, a policy that was moving us toward war as it had given Soleimani license to pursue aggressive interventions across the Mideast. Trump’s inclination is to disengage from overseas adventures and he had shown remarkable restraint in the face of repeated Iranian provocations including hijacking oil tankers, attacking Saudi oil facilitied, and downing a US drone in international airspace. Most US military were clamoring for strikes to cripple Iranian naval and air forces. But Trump decided not to do that. Soliemani took that for weakness and orchestrated attacks that killed US personnel in Iraq and he later organized attacks on the US embassy in Baghdad. He apparently felt he could travel to Iraq openly. With one nice strike, Trump reestablished a policy of deterrence. As revealed by their fireworks display of a counterstrike that was preceded by plenty of warning, the mullahs absolutely don’t want to get involved in a direct military confrontation with the US. I anticipate the Shia theocrats will moderate their behavior outside Iranian borders and try hard to avoid being the target of regime change. They will scream a lot, but do absolutely nothing in the next few months that invites US drones to decimate more of their leadership. They will wait and hope that in November an appeasement Democrat will be elected. For now, Trump took out a terrorist who had killed Americans and he did it in a way that reduces the likelihood of war. The score is Trump -1, Soliemani-0.

Mathematician, Statistician, Businessman, and Academic. Student of history, poli sci , and the Bible.

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