Your analysis might be right if this was a normal moment in time. But it isn’t. We are in the midst of a cultural and political Civil War not seen since the 1960s. Riots and looting have broken out in Democrat controlled cities. Protest zones, street murals, and monument toppling are signs of one side taking the offensive. Police are being defunded and crime is skyrocketing in the cities. The spreading anarchy is welcomed by the Left-Anarchists. Cancel culture warriors are out on-line attacking anyone and often getting the groveling apologies they demand.
In the midst of all this, Joe Biden, emerges as a smiling figure totally out of touch with what is happening even when he strings together a few lucid sentences. He reminds me of Hubert Humphrey and this all reminds me of 1968. Younger people I’ve talked to have zero interest and zero enthusiasm for Biden.
Trump is tapping into the anger and the fear. He is in a position to lead the forces of Counter-Revolution that are just starting to be awakened. A majority of people are furious with the rioters and loathe the media and imposed political correctness. A majority want schools to reopen and criminals to be arrested. Even card carrying Republicans are upset at how weak and timid Republican leadership is in response. A second wave of populism is starting to build. It is multi-racial and multi-ethnic. It is even pulling in suburban women who want safe streets, open schools, and a quick response when they dial 911.
The big challenge is for Joe to keep his Cultural Left wing happy but avoid being painted as a far-Left mannequin. What will he say to Italians in South Philly about where he stands on toppling statues of Columbus? What will he say to auto workers in Michigan and oil fracking workers in Pennsylvania about the Green New Deal agenda that will eliminate their jobs?
It is more than an even chance Trump, like Nixon in 1968, overcomes a huge deficit in the polls, and wins a stunning popular vote and electoral college victory. Even if not, Biden could take office with a country on fire as armed groups battle for control of the streets despite Democrat Covid-19 lockdown orders. In that environment, all these parliamentary maneuvers will be seen in context as power grabs that will only inflame the populist opposition. If he is elected, Biden’s best move to stop escalating violence would be to hold out some big olive branches to the populists. Perhaps a big round-up of Antifa and BLM leaders and a big increase in police and law and order measures. All he has to do is dust off his playbook from the 1990s when centrist Clintonian Democrats learned law and order gave them a majority coalition. They didn’t need mobs in the street. Even Hitler knew when to dispose of the Brownshirts.