You have an unwarranted amount of fear mongering in your messaging about the risk of Covid to the young and the risk of transmission from them. While many of your statements are well-supported by the data and citations you suppply, that is not quite true when it comes to your statements about the young. Sometimes the data you give fail to support the words. In other cases, you provide summaries of speculation from a single expert and statements that lack context.

Here is an example of something that sounds scary, but says less than it initially seems to.

And now with the perspective of time, it’s becoming clear that some proportion of infections can leave people in any age group with chronic effects.

Yes, but what is “some proportion” for the young? Is it 1.0%, 0.1%, or less? How significant is some proportion?

You do supply the statistics that show there were only 31 deaths to those aged 14 and younger:

<1: 9
1–4: 8
5–14: 14

That is quite low especially in comparison to other causes of mortality. The flu caused over 100 deaths and pneumonia over 350 deaths for those age cohorts.

This refutes your simplistic statement that Covid is worse than the flu. To be more accurate, the relative risk of these diseases varies by age cohort.

Covid -19 deaths are less than 1% of the total deaths for those below age 14. Drowning, poisoning, accidental falls, and shootings, are all more lethal than Covid. So yes the Covid risk to the young is not zero, but in context it is very low and , comparatively, it is a lot lower than many other causes of mortality.

You also have an “inevitably true” assertion from your expert, but no evidence to claim a significant danger of spread from young students to teachers.

Further, he and other experts say, when the disease builds in younger populations, as it has been doing in dramatic fashion since late May, it then inevitably infects more older people, leading to the rising number of daily deaths we now see.

If you are going to make that assertion, you need some sort of tracing study linking deaths to contacts with younger populations. The majority of deaths are of older people kept indoors in senior centers with inadequate ventilation systems. Meanwhile countries such as Germany and Sweden with open schools report very low transmission from the young to their teachers. Perhaps real data disproves inevitable truths?

The 10th thing experts have learned is that risk for the young is far lower than for the elderly.

Mathematician, Statistician, Businessman, and Academic. Student of history, poli sci , and the Bible.

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