You've hit on a key point: economic recovery has been and will be hampered in states that have imposed excessively severe or overly broad lockdowns. If reopening in a state does not proceed fast enough and the state does nothing to revive economic activity, it will lag behind other states. What has also become clear is that the economic cost has not led to better health outcomes. Florida has more people than New York and just as many old people. It never adopted a general shut down and instead focused on protecting senior centers. It has a fewer deaths than New York by an order of magnitude. The stay-at-home orders in New York failed miserably. They effectively locked old people in with Covid-19 positive patients, creating ideal petri dishes that spread the disease among the elderly.
There is no scientific evidence that keeping young people indoors saved any lives at all. Florida has had lots of young people on the beaches. The virus does not seem to spread so well in the hot sun on the sand and near the salt water. Young people in general do not die of the disease. It seems closing schools was a mistake. Young people are ignoring a lot of the restrictions anyway. Parties and social events are happening in private. Some young people are angry - their sports events, their classes, their proms and their graduations have been sacrificed for nothing. They are starting to see the Democrats as the Nanny State and starting to questions why they should vote for that party.
If those five states pursue shutdown policies and end up lagging other states in economic recovery without any apparent health benefit, the contrast will help Trump and the Republicans. Yes we would like all states to recover. But if those five states persist as economic basket cases because their Democrat Party governors are unwilling to reopen them, Trump will only be helped. He would have lost those states anyway except for Michigan. Having the Democrats brand themselves as the party of economic disaster is a godsend for the Republicans. Shutdown Democrats are losing workers who want their jobs back now and they are losing young people.