You’ve put your finger on the key point: Hillary’s fatal overconfidence in her own overly optimistic polls cost her the election. This hubris about the inevitably of her coronation infected much of Democratic Party and the Mainstream media. How they ridiculed Kellyanne Conway when the Trump campaign added late rallies in Michigan and Wisconsin. But she had the last laugh. Obama meanwhile chose to ignore and downplay the threat of Russian election meddling. Hillary was also aware of much of what the Russians were doing. She did not react. In the end it is Hillary’s fault that she never figured out how to deal with Comey and emails. After Comey I in June, she should have made sure she knew where every email was. But she didn’t. She was blind-sided to learn that some of her emails were knocking boots with Carlos Danger. It’s not that her campaign wasn’t hurt by Comey and the Russians, it’s that her overconfidence led her to ignore these threats and ultimately fail to mount any effective response. A better candidate would have insisted Obama act against the Russians before the election. A better candidate would have ducked the shot from Comey and come up with a devastating counterpunch. A better candidate would have hired better pollsters and campaign managers, not just those that told her what she wanted to hear. A better candidate would have gone to Wisconsin. Ultimately, a candidate who suffers from such arrogance that she cannot see threats and is too smug to respond to them is someone who should not be Commander-in-Chief.
I have a specific critique of one point you make. You say polls show Comey’s October surprise was “political politically devastating"? I think you need to be more specific and have a citation for a statement like that. Which polls show this? How devastating is devastating?
Finally, though I agree with your diagnosis of 2016, it doesn’t show Trump cheated. As for 2020, both sides seem to be planning to cheat. The Democrats are trying to stuff the ballot box by having millions of illegal aliens vote illegally. Both sides are ramping up absentee ballot voter harvesting operations.
Arguably, Trump doesn’t need to cheat. If he can stop Democrats from stealing the election, he should coast to an easy electoral college victory. But maybe that is being overconfident.